Contents
Preface
Part Ⅰ An Overview of the Double Helix Methodology in Think Tanks
Chapter 1 Connotation and Development of Think Tanks 3
1.1 Connotation and Functions of Think Tanks 3
1.2 Construction and Development of Think Tanks 7
1.3 Practice of High-end Think Tank Construction in China and the Future Development 14
References 18
Chapter 2 Theory Structure of the Double Helix Methodology in Think Tanks 20
2.1 Main Content of the Double Helix Methodology in Think Tanks 20
2.2 Ten Key Issues of the Double Helix Methodology in Think Tanks 35
2.3 Four-layered Model of the Double Helix Methodology in Think Tanks 54
2.4 Summary 66
References 67
Chapter 3 Theoretical Value and Significance of the Double Helix Methodology in Think Tanks 69
3.1 Promoting the Six Transitions in Think Tank Research 69
3.2 Building an Academic Foundation for Think Tank Research 82
3.3 Providing Input and Directions for the Construction of the Think Tank Discipline 113
3.4 Summary 117
References 118
Part Ⅱ The Key Issues of the Double Helix Methodology in Think Tanks
Chapter 4 Decomposition of Think Tank Problems 121
4.1 Defining the Problem 122
4.2 Describing the Problem 125
4.3 Constructing the Framework 127
4.4 Formation of the Sub-problem Set 130
4.5 Case Study 132
4.6 Summary 136
References 137
Chapter 5 Scenario Analysis of Think Tank Problems 139
5.1 The Importance of Scenario Analysis in the Study of Think Tank Issues 139
5.2 The Role of Scenario Analysis in Think Tank Research 142
5.3 Key Elements of Scenario Analysis and Its Methods 143
5.4 Processes of Scenario Analysis and Its Functions in the DIIS Framework 147
5.5 The Role of Scenario Analysis in the Realization of MIPS Objectives 152
5.6 Summary 158
References 159
Chapter 6 Uncertainty Analysis in Think Tank Problem Study 161
6.1 The Connotation of Uncertainty 162
6.2 Uncertainty in Think Tank Problems and the Double Helix Methodology in Think Tanks 164
6.3 Uncertainty Analysis Methods for Think Tank Problems 167
6.4 Summary 172
References 173
Chapter 7 Policy Simulation Analysis in Think Tank Problem Research 175
7.1 Policy Simulation in Think Tank Problem Research 175
7.2 Advances in Policy Simulation for Problem Research in Think Tanks at Home and Abroad 178
7.3 Decomposition of Policy Simulation Process on the Basis of the DIIS Process Convergence Method and the MIPS Logic Layer Method 183
7.4 Representative Methods of Policy Simulation in Think Tank Problem Research 197
7.5 Summary 201
References 203
Chapter 8 Cyclic Iteration of Think Tank Research 204
8.1 Overview of the Cyclic Iteration in Think Tank Research 204
8.2 Triggering Situations and Stages Involved in the Cyclic Iteration of the Double Helix Methodology in Think Tanks 209
8.3 Cyclic Iteration Process of the Double Helix Methodology in Think Tanks 216
8.4 Case Study 230
8.5 Summary 232
References 232
Chapter 9 DIIS and MIPS Coupling 234
9.1 Characteristics of DIIS-MIPS Coupling 235
9.2 Structure of DIIS-MIPS Coupling 237
9.3 DIIS-MIPS Coupling in Research Practice 245
9.4 Summary 249
References 249
Chapter 10 Organization and Management of Think Tank Experts 250
10.1 The Role of Think Tank Experts in Think Tank Research 251
10.2 Expert Functions and Knowledge Characteristics 254
10.3 Expert Selection 257
10.4 Expert Participation 260
10.5 Summary 266
References 267
Chapter 11 Human-machine Research Support System in Think Tank Research 268
11.1 Necessity for the Construction of Decision Support System in Think Tanks 268
11.2 Main Types of Decision Support Systems in Think Tanks 272
11.3 Research Hotspots of Think Tank Decision Support Systems 276
11.4 Architecture of the Decision Support System in the Framework of Double Helix Methodology in Think Tanks 278
11.5 Summary 292
References 292
Chapter 12 Combination of Objective Analysis and Subjective Judgment 293
12.1 The Significance of Combining Objective Analysis and Subjective Judgment 294
12.2 Concept of Combining Objective Analysis and Subjective Judgment 295
12.3 Principles， Criteria and Methods of Combining Objective Analysis and Subjective Judgment 300
12.4 The Application of Combined Objective Analysis and Subjective Judgment 303
12.5 The Progress of Combining Objective Analysis and Subjective Judgment in Different Domain Perspectives 309
12.6 Summary 312
References 313
Chapter 13 Product Quality Management 315
13.1 Characteristics and Classification of Think Tank Products 315
13.2 Quality Requirements for Think Tank Products 320
13.3 Quality Management of Think Tank Products 329
13.4 Summary 333
References 334